Country risk profile
Lebanon
- ISO
- LBN
- Region
- Asia
- Population
- 5.5M
- Profile
- updated 9 Oct 2026, 06:02 UTC
Composite risk
100/100
SevereAssessment summary
The published severe-risk rating is led by Conflict and Economic Fragility, based on 7 of 7 risk groups.
At-a-glance evidence
Risk ratings and primary indicators
Ratings apply published thresholds to each source value. Low means the observed value is below elevated-risk thresholds; no data means no verified observation.
Primary source indicators
Full evidence and limitations ↓Governance
High29.7 / 100
Higher means stronger governance
Corruption perception
High23.0 / 100
Higher means cleaner public sector
Humanitarian risk
High6.4 / 10
Higher means greater crisis risk
Listed labour-risk goods
Moderate2 goods
Count of listed country-good observations
Sanctions designations
Moderate383 recorded
Recorded designations, not unique subjects
Violent-event intensity
Severe66 / 100
Higher means greater reported intensity
FATF status
HighIncreased monitoring
Published jurisdiction list status
State fragility
High91.8 / 120
Higher means greater fragility
Press freedom
Moderate46.5 / 100
Higher means greater press freedom
Environmental performance
High39.9 / 100
Higher means better performance
Published score inputs
What drives the score
01Conflictsevere 3 / 3
- very high violent event intensity (66/100, 180-day GDELT CAMEO)
- high war event intensity (15% armed clashes/terrorism, 180-day GDELT CAMEO)
02Economic Fragilitysevere 3 / 3
- OECD country risk category 7/7 — highest risk (OECD CRC 2026)
03Governancehigh 2 / 3
- low governance score (29.7/100, WB WGI 2025)
- high INFORM risk (6.4/10, INFORM 2026)
Calculation and all contributing groups
Group total 14 ÷ 7 available groups. Base 66.7 → published 100/100.
- Governance
- high · 2/3
- Corruption & Financial Crime
- high · 2/3
- Labour & Human Rights
- moderate · 1/3
- Conflict
- severe · 3/3
- Sanctions
- moderate · 1/3
- Economic Fragility
- severe · 3/3
- Environmental
- high · 2/3
Published assessment rationale
Severe risk driven by Conflict (severe — very high violent event intensity (66/100, 180-day GDELT CAMEO)), Economic Fragility (severe — OECD country risk category 7/7 — highest risk (OECD CRC 2026)), Governance (high — low governance score (29.7/100, WB WGI 2025)), Corruption & Financial Crime (high — high corruption perception (23/100, TI CPI 2025)), Environmental (high — poor environmental performance (EPI 40/100, Yale 2024)), Labour & Human Rights (moderate — child- or forced-labour evidence across 2 goods (US DOL TVPRA 2024)), and Sanctions (moderate — notable sanctions exposure (383 designations, 70/M pop.)).
Coverage measures available evidence, not certainty. See the exact formula and thresholds.
Lebanon narrative assessment
Lebanon carries a composite risk score of 100 out of 100 on the [S/1] scorecard, placing it in the severe risk band as of 9 October 2026. The result is based on 7 of 7 indicator groups (complete evidence coverage); unavailable groups are excluded rather than treated as low risk. It records a World Bank governance score of 29.7 out of 100 (2025, higher is better), a Transparency International CPI score of 23 out of 100 (2025, higher is cleaner) and an INFORM crisis-risk index of 6.4 out of 10 (2026, higher is worse). Exposure includes 383 sanctions or debarment designations linked to Lebanon within [S/1]'s 18-source configured coverage model, using the source data currently available, 2 child-labour category observations across 2 source-listed goods (US DOL TVPRA 2024) and FATF grey-list status — under increased monitoring (2026). The groups driving the assessment are governance, corruption & financial crime, conflict, economic fragility and environmental. All figures are drawn from official open-data sources and carry their own publication year. This is a country-level screening input, not an entity-level determination.
Continue the assessment
Apply the country context.
Project assessment uses this profile as regional context. Establish site-specific impacts through project and stakeholder evidence.
Country annex: €29 once · included in Pro.
Indicator evidenceSource values, publication years and links
Published values retain their original units and scale directions. Open each source before using an indicator in a decision.
CHILD / FORCED LABOUR · US DOL
2 GOODSModerate
Potatoes, Tobacco
Child-labour category 2 · Forced-labour category 0
SOURCE: US DOL TVPRA · 2024 · link ↗
SANCTIONS · 18 CONFIGURED SOURCES
383 DESIGNATIONSModerate
Selected lists: EU 7 · OFAC 334 · UN 2 · UK 8 · SECO 4
A country-level count is a screening signal, not a finding about any specific entity or evidence of national culpability.
VIOLENT EVENTS · GDELT
66/100 INTENSITYSevere
180-day CAMEO violent event intensity (normalized 0-100)
SOURCE: GDELT · queried 09/10/2026 · link ↗
FATF STATUS
GREY LISTEDHigh
Financial Action Task Force — jurisdiction under increased monitoring
SOURCE: FATF · 2026 · link ↗
FRAGILE STATES INDEX
91.8/120High
Fund for Peace — higher = more fragile
SOURCE: Fragile States Index · 2023 · link ↗
PRESS FREEDOM · RSF
46.5/100Moderate
Reporters Without Borders — higher = more free
SOURCE: RSF Press Freedom · 2026 · link ↗
ENV. PERFORMANCE · YALE EPI
39.9/100High
Yale Environmental Performance Index — higher = better
SOURCE: Yale EPI · 2024 · link ↗
CLIMATE RISK · ND-GAIN
47/100Moderate
Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index — higher = better adapted (vuln. 42%, ready 36%)
SOURCE: ND-GAIN · 2023 · link ↗
LABOUR RIGHTS · ILO NORMLEX
8/8
Legacy eight-convention ratification aggregate. C155 and C187 are excluded; ratification does not establish enforcement or project practice.
SOURCE: ILO NORMLEX · 2026 · link ↗
CHILD LABOUR · ILO ILOSTAT
3%
Children aged 5–17 in child labour — ILO survey estimate
SOURCE: ILO ILOSTAT · 2021 · link ↗
POLITICAL FREEDOM · FREEDOM HOUSE
Data not available
Source last ingested: —
Additional inputs
- War events · 180-day GDELT
- 14.9/100 intensity2026-10-09 · Source ↗
- OECD country risk category
- 7/72026 · Source ↗
- IMF programme severity
- No country observation
- Trade circumvention signal
- No country observation
- EU forced-labour product groups
- No country observation
- PM2.5 annual mean
- No country observation
- Water stress
- No country observation
- Land degradation
- No country observation
- Human development · context only
- 75/1002023 · Source ↗
Source dates and coverageIngestion and publication context
Observation periods, recorded pipeline dates and fallback status are distinct. A recent pipeline date does not verify the observation or establish complete coverage.
Scorecard computed9 Oct 2026, 06:02 UTC
- Governance · WB WGI
- Observation period: 2025
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:02 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Corruption · TI CPI
- Observation period: 2025
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - INFORM Risk · JRC
- Observation period: 2026
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Child / forced labour · US DOL
- Observation period: 2024
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Sanctions · aggregate ingestion marker
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 9 Oct 2026, 03:01 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Violent events · GDELT
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 9 Oct 2026, 04:36 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - FATF
- Observation period: 2026
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Fragile States Index
- Observation period: 2023
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:06 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Press freedom · RSF
- Observation period: 2026
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:06 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Environmental performance · Yale
- Observation period: 2024
Pipeline date: 1 Sept 2026, 04:06 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Climate risk · ND-GAIN
- Observation period: 2023
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Labour rights · ILO NORMLEX
- Observation period: 2026
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Legacy eight-convention aggregate; individual convention provenance requires validation. - Child labour · ILOSTAT
- Observation period: 2021
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Survey provenance requires validation before project-assessment use. - Political freedom · Freedom House
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: Not recorded
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Country risk category · OECD
- Observation period: 2026
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Lending programmes · IMF
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Trade patterns · UN Comtrade
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 3 Oct 2026, 02:01 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Human development · UNDP
- Observation period: 2023
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 08:06 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Forced labour · EU
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: Not recorded
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Air quality
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC
Fallback status not supplied by this source record. - Water and land · ingestion paused
- Observation period: Unknown or not supplied
Pipeline date: 1 Oct 2026, 04:12 UTC
Historical fallback observations are unverified. UN SDG ingestion is paused pending reuse-term verification.
Sector exposureCountry × sector and commodity signals
Sector Risk Intelligence
Child labour by sector · Conflict minerals · EUDR commodity risk · Forced labour detentions
Published model changes · 12 months
Recent score changes
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These entries record changes in published model outputs. Review the source dates and evidence before relying on a change.
Research and reuseSources, methods and related evidence
Common questions about Lebanon risk
What is the overall risk level of Lebanon?
Lebanon scores 100 out of 100 on the [S/1] composite risk scorecard, which places it in the severe risk band as of 9 October 2026. The result uses 7 of seven indicator groups and has complete evidence coverage; The composite uses the available scores across seven indicator groups: governance, corruption and financial crime, labour and human rights, conflict, sanctions, economic fragility, and environmental. Groups score 0–3; the available-group average is converted to a base percentage and calibrated using the formula published on the methodology page.
Is Lebanon on the FATF grey list?
Yes. Lebanon is on the FATF grey list, meaning it is under increased monitoring by the Financial Action Task Force, as recorded in the 2026 listing. FATF updates its lists three times per year.
How many sanctions designations are linked to Lebanon?
[S/1] records 383 sanctions or debarment designations linked to Lebanon within its 18-source configured coverage model, using the source data currently available as of 9 October 2026. These include 334 on the US OFAC SDN list, 7 on the EU consolidated list, 8 on the UK FCDO list and 2 on the UN Security Council list. Source availability varies and is published separately. A country-level count is a screening signal, not a finding about any specific entity.
What is Lebanon's corruption score?
Lebanon scores 23 out of 100 on the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index for 2025. The CPI runs from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean) and measures perceived public-sector corruption based on expert assessments and business surveys.
Are goods from Lebanon linked to child labour?
The US Department of Labor's TVPRA list (2024 edition) records 2 child-labour category observations across 2 source-listed goods from Lebanon: Potatoes, Tobacco. This source release contains no forced-labour-category observation for the country. 1 of the 2 goods currently map conservatively to the shared S1 sector taxonomy; unmapped goods are retained rather than assigned by guesswork. This is a country-and-good screening signal, not a finding about any specific supplier, product or shipment.
How well governed is Lebanon?
Lebanon scores 29.7 out of 100 on the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2025, where a higher score is better. The WGI aggregate combines Voice and Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
Is there active conflict in Lebanon?
[S/1] records a normalised conflict-event intensity of 65.6 out of 100 for Lebanon, derived from CAMEO-coded violent event data in GDELT. This measures the volume and severity of reported events over a rolling window; it reflects what has been reported in media, not a verified operational assessment.
Where does the Lebanon risk data come from?
The Lebanon scorecard aggregates official open-data sources including the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, Transparency International CPI, the European Commission JRC INFORM index, US DOL TVPRA, FATF, the Fragile States Index, RSF, ILO NORMLEX and GDELT, together with an 18-source configured sanctions and debarment coverage model including OFAC, the EU consolidated list, UK FCDO and the UN Security Council. Each indicator carries its own publication year, shown on the page, and current pipeline health is published in the source directory. The scorecard was last generated on 9 October 2026.
From context to decision
What should happen after a country-risk signal?
Country indicators should route diligence, not decide whether a specific supplier is acceptable. Add sector exposure, resolve the legal entity, reconstruct ownership and control, screen connected parties, and verify the facts that matter to the transaction.
Use this evidence in your work
Cite this profile in a briefing or embed a live card in your research portal. Keep the source date and country-level limitations alongside the evidence.
Salient One (2026-10-09). Lebanon Country Risk Profile. https://s1.salientone.eu/scorecard/lebanon. Country-level context; not an entity determination.